May records 36% shortfall; weather forecaster warns reduced snowfall, warming temperatures could affect long-term regional water security
Srinagar, Jun 09: Jammu and Kashmir recorded a 36 per cent rainfall deficit in May, pushing the overall precipitation shortfall for the January-May period to 42 per cent and raising concerns over water availability, agriculture and hydropower generation in the coming months, according to data released by Kashmir Weather, an independent weather forecaster.
According to details obtained by the news agency—Kashmir News Observer (KNO), the Union Territory received 49.4 mm of rainfall in May against the normal 77.5 mm, continuing a prolonged dry spell that has persisted since November 2025.
Monthly precipitation departures during 2026 stood at minus 23 per cent in January, minus 89 per cent in February, minus 34 per cent in March, minus 13 per cent in April and minus 36 per cent in May, resulting in a cumulative deficit of 42 per cent during the first five months of the year, according to the forecaster.
The data showed wide variations across districts, with several parts of Kashmir and Jammu divisions witnessing significant rainfall shortages.
In Kashmir, Shopian recorded the highest deficit at 83 per cent, receiving only 13.5 mm rainfall against the normal 78.2 mm. Budgam and Kulgam recorded deficits of 69 per cent each, while Anantnag, Pulwama, Srinagar, Bandipora and Baramulla also remained below normal.
Ganderbal was among the few districts to record near-normal precipitation, receiving 92.1 mm rainfall against a normal of 91.3 mm, while Kupwara also ended the month close to normal levels.
In the Jammu division, Ramban recorded a 65 per cent deficit, followed by Kishtwar at 57 per cent, Kathua at 56 per cent, Jammu at 55 per cent and Reasi at 53 per cent. Rajouri, Doda, Samba and Udhampur also reported below-normal rainfall.
Poonch was the only district to register a substantial surplus, receiving 122.8 mm rainfall against a normal of 82.3 mm, an excess of 49 per cent.
In Ladakh, Kargil recorded a 38 per cent deficit while Leh registered a 40 per cent surplus. Overall, the region ended May with a seven per cent precipitation deficit.
Kashmir Weather said the growing precipitation deficit was becoming increasingly significant as the region entered the warmer months.
The forecaster noted that several consecutive winters have witnessed below-normal precipitation, leading to reduced snow accumulation in higher reaches. Lower snowfall affects seasonal snow reserves and glacier nourishment, both of which play a key role in sustaining river flows during summer.
It warned that rising temperatures were accelerating snow and glacier melt in mountain regions. While enhanced melting may temporarily maintain river discharge, reduced snowfall coupled with warming temperatures could gradually affect glacier mass and long-term water security.
The forecaster said prolonged dry conditions later in the year could result in lower river and stream flows, affecting irrigation, agriculture, horticulture, hydropower generation, drinking water supplies and groundwater recharge.
It stressed the need for improved water-resource management, conservation measures and long-term planning to address the impact of changing precipitation patterns and emerging water-stress challenges across Jammu and Kashmir. (KNO)
