Srinagar, Nov 13: All eyes are on the outcome of the Budgam seat, which is being seen as the first major litmus test for the one-year-old National Conference-led government.
While by-elections were held for two seats-Budgam and Nagrota-political parties as well as observers are keenly watching the outcome of the former, given multiple factors and variables in the segment.
According to observers as per news agency—Kashmir News Observer (KNO), it will be interesting to see whether the National Conference (NC)’s cadre base can withstand the conspicuous rebellion by its Member of Parliament Aga Ruhullah Mehdi and the perceived anti-incumbency sentiment against the one-year-old Omar Abdullah-led government.
“Ruhullah may have a limited vote bank, but he has a broader appeal. It remains to be seen whether his absence from campaigning will affect the prospects of the NC in a seat considered its traditional stronghold,” they said.
They said NC’s ability to win the seat will indicate its grassroots cadre remains intact despite internal dissent and “anti-incumbency sentiment”.
The rebellion by Ruhullah has upset NC’s calculations, tightening the race in a constituency that was usually seen as a cakewalk for the party.
It is widely believed that Ruhullah’s loyalists have voted for PDP candidate Aga Muntazir Mehdi, whose core support base overlaps with Ruhullah’s.
While the outcome may carry broader messaging vis-a-vis the NC-Ruhullah conflict, the verdict would not electorally benefit the MP either way; a win by the NC or the PDP is almost the same for him.
On the other hand, a win for the PDP-reduced to the fringes of Kashmir’s politics-would be a significant boost for the party. “It would be a morale booster for the party, which has been reduced to three seats from its tally of 28 in 2024. It would not mean a pro-PDP wave or revival of the party, given that it is largely banking on the Shia vote,” they said, adding that the win would put it in a position of re-emerging as an alternative to NC. (KNO)
