The US has always benefited from and even stirred up the rivalry between Iran and the Arab Gulf states
US Sen. Lindsey Graham, talking as if he were the commander in chief, on Monday issued a veiled threat to Arab Gulf states, urging them to attack Iran. He said there would be “consequences” if they did not do so. Despite the very aggressive and provocative Iranian actions, the Gulf Cooperation Council states know they have no dog in this fight. They want to stay out of this war and they are right to do so.
The US is attempting the strategy of buck passing. It wants its allies to bear the brunt of fighting Iran while it incurs minimal costs. The US is trying to push the Gulf into America’s war of choice, to which the GCC states did not agree and were not even consulted.
Washington is adopting various methods to involve these states. To start with, Trump keeps falsely announcing that Arab states are joining the fight. The administration airs misleading footage of missiles being launched at Iran from land in order to give the impression they have been fired from Arab countries. In addition, Israel has been raising false flags. It reportedly claimed the UAE was responsible for an attack on a desalination plant in Iran, only for Abu Dhabi to immediately refute the accusation.
The US has always benefited from and even stirred up the rivalry between Iran and the Arab Gulf states. Before the revolution of 1979, both sides of the Gulf were allies of the US. America balanced out the two rivals. After the shah fell and was replaced by a regime hostile to the US, the latter’s relevance increased. Iran has long sought to negotiate with Washington to alleviate sanctions, while flexing its muscles with its Arab neighbors. At the same time, the Gulf states used the US’ military strength and influence to shield themselves from Iranian threats.
The ongoing Iranian strikes on the Gulf states that have opposed the war and lobbied the US not to go to war with Iran are in no way morally or legally justifiable. These states are understandably furious and feel betrayed. However, this is a moment where pragmatism should trump pride. The end of the war is in the best interest of the Gulf.
One should also take into consideration that war with a neighbor is different from war with a faraway power. Today, the US can retrieve its military assets and the war would be finished. Iran would not go to the other side of the globe to fight the US. However, war with a next-door neighbor is far more complicated and more difficult to contain. We must remember the Iran-Iraq war. That was supposed to last three weeks but it lasted eight years.
The issue is not only about shifting the cost of the war to the Gulf states. There is also the issue of the relevance of the US. If Gulf states go to war, they will need more and more support from the US — such as arms transfers and support at the UN — especially if it is a prolonged conflict. This would also make sure the Gulf states were driven away from Russia and China. Both countries have condemned the US-Israeli attack and expressed support for Iran. Russian President Vladimir Putin declared his “unwavering support” for the new supreme leader and stated that he would remain Iran’s “reliable partner.”
The most important issue is that of legitimacy. This is a very unpopular war in the US. People are linking it to the Epstein files, calling it “Operation Epstein Fury” instead of “Epic Fury” and blaming Israel for pushing the US into this war. This is where the Trump administration needs a scapegoat. It does not want to tarnish the image of Israel.
Graham said in an interview that the US would not go to the Middle East to fight alone. Of course, he cannot tell his people in South Carolina to go to war for Israel. If the GCC states are involved, then he can always say the US is going to protect its interests in the Gulf. However, if the Gulf says this war is unnecessary, people like Graham will have difficulty providing any rationale for this military campaign. Arab involvement would give them legitimacy.
Even those who are against the war do not dare blame Israel. They blame the Gulf states. Rachel Maddow, a supposedly “ liberal” anchor, claimed Trump is waging this war on their behalf.
When the Gulf states see this, they realize the US’ grand scheme is to scapegoat them. So, they have doubled down on their neutral position. They know that the cost of attacking Iran would be much higher than only taking a defensive position.
Sheikh Hamad bin Jassem Al-Thani, the former prime minister of Qatar, tweeted that the Gulf countries should not join the fight. Between the lines, he warned the GCC states of the trap set for them by the US and Benjamin Netanyahu. Those two do not realize or maybe do not care that they are heading toward a global crisis and they are dragging everyone down with them. The war needs to end for the sake of the whole world.
The Gulf states should be pragmatic. Despite Iran’s despicable acts, they need to deal with them through de-escalation. There is the Beijing Agreement of March 2023 between Saudi Arabia and Iran. That agreement should be evoked. The Gulf states should keep channels of communication with Iran open and use all diplomatic avenues to sideline themselves in this fight. The Arab Gulf being neutral will make sure the conflict is constrained and the region does not descend into all-out war. Otherwise, not only the region but the entire globe will sleepwalk toward a crisis that could lead to a third world war.
Dr. Dania Koleilat Khatib is a specialist in US-Arab relations with a focus on lobbying. She is co-founder of the Research Center for Cooperation and Peace Building, a Lebanese nongovernmental organization focused on Track II.
Disclaimer: Views expressed by the writer are her own and do not necessarily reflect Arab News’ point of view
